Ukraine Mulls Draft Expansion Amid Soldier Shortage

Two years after Russia’s full-scale invasion, the initial rush of Ukrainian men to join the military has significantly waned. With Russia controlling about a quarter of Ukraine and a stalemate along a 620-mile front line, avoidance of the draft has become common, with many men either staying hidden or attempting to bribe their way out of service.

Front-line commanders report a dire shortage of personnel, with their forces dwindling due to exhaustion and injuries. As the conflict enters its third year, Ukraine faces the critical challenge of recruiting enough soldiers to counteract Russia’s numerical advantage. Russia’s larger population and President Vladimir Putin’s readiness to conscript soldiers highlight the disparity between the two nations.

The shortage of troops is compounded by Ukraine’s struggle for sustained Western military support. The Ukrainian parliament is considering a bill to expand the draft pool by lowering the enlistment age, aiming to add about 400,000 potential recruits. However, the proposal is unpopular, raising fundamental questions about the nation’s capacity for self-sacrifice and the potential consequences of insufficient mobilization.

A Ukrainian soldier near Avdiivka recounted being vastly outnumbered in a recent engagement, with his unit suffering heavy losses. Elsewhere, a 42-year-old man near Kyiv lives in hiding, tormented by guilt over avoiding the draft, echoing the sentiments of thousands of other men.

The front-line scarcity of fresh recruits leaves units overextended, with insufficient rest and a high risk of injury. New recruits are often too few, inadequately trained, or too old. Commanders express their inability to conduct offensives or even maintain their positions under the weight of Russian attacks.

The proposed legislation aims to draft additional men to alleviate the strain on current forces. Ukraine’s military, with an estimated 300,000 soldiers on the front line, faces a significant numerical disadvantage against Russian forces. The draft legislation, however, faces political hurdles and widespread public resistance.

Draft dodgers, including a website creator from a Kyiv suburb, resist enlistment for moral and personal reasons, planning to flee the country to avoid combat. The proposed electronic tracking system for draft-eligible citizens aims to reduce evasion, especially targeting those in poor, rural areas. Yet, for many, the prospect of being drafted feels like being consigned to a dire fate.