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The first semi-final of the 2024/25 UEFA Nations League will see hosts Germany face Portugal at the Allianz Arena in Munich on Wednesday, June 4, with kickoff scheduled for 10:00 PM local time. This marquee fixture brings together two past tournament winners in what is expected to be a closely contested encounter between two sides on contrasting developmental trajectories.
Germany, competing on home soil once again following their quarter-final exit in UEFA EURO 2024, come into this clash with renewed energy and a restructured squad under Julian Nagelsmann. Portugal, meanwhile, continue under the management of Roberto Martinez and the long-serving leadership of Cristiano Ronaldo, who remains in the squad at age 40, despite speculation about his future club commitments.
Germany Overview
Following their disappointing exit at EURO 2024, Germany underwent significant squad turnover, as stalwarts like Manuel Neuer, Ilkay Gundogan, Toni Kroos, and Thomas Muller retired from international duty. This forced a recalibration of their setup, and under Nagelsmann’s guidance, a younger and more dynamic squad has emerged.
Their road to the semi-final was dramatic. Germany overcame Italy in the quarter-finals with a 5-4 aggregate victory. A 2-1 away win in Milan was followed by a chaotic second leg in which Germany squandered a three-goal lead but managed to advance.
With most of their squad based in the Bundesliga and domestic football already concluded, Germany enter the tie relatively well-rested. However, they will be missing defender Antonio Rudiger and midfielder Angelo Stiller, both ruled out due to injury. First-choice goalkeeper Marc-Andre ter Stegen, sidelined for much of Barcelona’s season, returns to action and is expected to start.
Germany’s likely starting formation is a 4-2-3-1, featuring: Ter Stegen; Kimmich, Tah, Anton, Mittelstädt; Goretzka, Groß; Sané, Musiala, Wirtz; Undav.
Portugal Overview
Portugal approach the semi-final in full health and with a complete squad. Since a disappointing penalty shootout loss to France in the quarter-finals of EURO 2024, the team has performed consistently in non-tournament fixtures. Yet concerns remain about their effectiveness in tournament knockout stages, particularly regarding their offensive fluidity with Cristiano Ronaldo continuing as the starting striker.
While Ronaldo remains a central figure, questions linger about his compatibility with Portugal’s evolving midfield and attack. Several key players—Vitinha, João Neves, and Nuno Mendes—are coming off participation in the UEFA Champions League final, also held at the Allianz Arena, which could impact their physical readiness. Despite this, they are expected to feature prominently given the magnitude of the occasion.
Portugal’s expected lineup mirrors Germany’s in a 4-2-3-1 setup: Costa; Diogo Dalot, António Silva, Rúben Dias, Nuno Mendes; João Neves, Vitinha; Bernardo Silva, Bruno Fernandes, Rafael Leão; Cristiano Ronaldo.
Prediction
Germany, under Nagelsmann, have emphasized a proactive and high-tempo style, aiming to instill intensity and cohesion ahead of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. With dynamic young talent like Jamal Musiala and Florian Wirtz, they have the technical edge and creativity needed to exploit defensive gaps.
Portugal, while boasting depth and experience, have at times lacked attacking sharpness under Martinez. Though the midfield pairing of Vitinha and João Neves has brought renewed stability, their influence may be diminished due to recent club commitments. Ronaldo’s presence provides experience and scoring threat, but it may also limit Portugal’s tactical flexibility in the final third.
Considering Germany’s home advantage, recent performances, and tactical momentum, they are positioned as slight favorites. Portugal’s squad quality cannot be discounted, but Germany’s fresher legs and forward-oriented game plan may give them the edge in an entertaining contest.
Prediction: Germany to win and both teams to score
