US Strikes Iranian Nuclear Sites as Geopolitical Tensions Soar

The United States carried out airstrikes against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure on June 22, marking a significant escalation in a tense, 10-day conflict that began with Israeli strikes on Iranian sites. American forces targeted uranium enrichment facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan using advanced weaponry designed to penetrate deeply buried structures, signaling a shift from indirect involvement to direct intervention.

The assault employed bunker-busting munitions—likely Massive Ordnance Penetrators—dropped by stealth-capable B‑2 bombers, alongside Tomahawk cruise missiles launched from submarines, aimed at disabling hard-to-reach underground installations. Fordow, situated nearly 300 feet below a mountain, was a primary focus, alongside Iran’s key enrichment sites at Natanz and Esfahan, which are essential in supporting uranium fuel production. The operation was described by U.S. officials as decisive in disrupting Iran’s nuclear advancement.

Geopolitical and Economic Ramifications

The strike not only intensifies military tensions but also reverberates through global energy markets. Iran is a major crude exporter, and its strategic chokepoint— the Strait of Hormuz—handles approximately one-fifth of global oil shipments. Markets have reacted quickly, with crude futures already rising around 11 percent in the week leading to the strikes; Brent crude approached $80 per barrel on June 22. Analysts warn that any attack on export routes or prolonged conflict could push prices above $90 or even breach the $100 mark, especially if daily oil output falls significantly. While OPEC+ plans a production increase of roughly 4 million barrels per day in July, disruptions stemming from this conflict may outpace such mitigation strategies.

Regional and Global Stakes, With a Spotlight on India

The risk of a forced closure of the Strait of Hormuz is heightening concerns, as any blockade would threaten shipments from Iran and other Gulf producers. While Iran has threatened to take that step, it would also affect its own exports, complicating the calculus. Major importers like India—reliant on the strait for close to half its crude and LNG imports—face significant economic pressure if prices rise sharply. For every $10-per-barrel increase in crude, India’s GDP growth could slow by around half a percent, with energy-intensive sectors and state-run refiners feeling the strain. Indian officials are reportedly seeking to diversify supply sources and redirect exports of refined products to mitigate risks. China, Iran’s largest oil partner, may exert diplomatic influence to discourage extreme measures like shipping lane closures.

Outlook Amid Rising Tensions

The U.S. strikes signal a dramatic escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict, and the consequences are already unfolding across diplomatic, military, and economic arenas. The Central Bank of Iran, OPEC, and global energy analysts will be closely monitoring developments in Hormuz and Tehran’s next moves.

The risk premium in oil is expected to remain elevated until the conflict stabilizes. The ability of other producers to compensate through increased output will be closely watched, along with political strategies by key importers and exporting nations responding to the evolving situation.