Turkey-Israel tensions rise over post-Assad Syria

Tensions between Turkey and Israel have intensified following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in Syria, with both nations pursuing opposing strategies in the region. Their conflicting objectives are increasingly placing them on a potential collision course.

Turkey has positioned itself as a key actor in Syria, advocating for a stable and unified country under a central government. It recently welcomed an agreement between Syria’s new interim leadership and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which aims to integrate Kurdish forces into the national army. Turkey has long opposed Assad and backed various groups that fought against his rule.

Israel, however, remains skeptical of Syria’s interim president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, citing his ties to al-Qaida. The Israeli government is wary of Turkey’s growing influence in Syria and appears to prefer a fragmented Syria rather than a centralized state, fearing it could once again become a launchpad for Iranian-backed forces.

Following Assad’s fall, Israel moved to seize control of key areas in southern Syria, arguing it was necessary to keep hostile factions away from its borders. However, Syria’s interim government and the United Nations have condemned Israel’s actions, citing violations of a 1974 ceasefire agreement. Israel has also carried out targeted airstrikes on military infrastructure left behind by Assad’s forces and has signaled its intention to maintain a presence in the region.

Rising Tensions and Military Concerns

Israel is particularly concerned about Turkey’s expanding military footprint in Syria. Since 2016, Turkey has conducted multiple military operations in northern Syria, primarily to counter Kurdish militias linked to the banned Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK). Ankara continues to maintain a significant military presence in the north through both bases and alliances with anti-Assad groups.

Meanwhile, Turkey and Syria’s interim government have initiated defense and security cooperation, with a Turkish military delegation expected to visit Syria soon. Israeli officials, however, have drawn a red line, warning they will not tolerate a Syrian military presence south of Damascus. They have even threatened to send forces into a Damascus suburb to protect the Druze minority, particularly after clashes between Druze militias and Syria’s new security forces.

Turkey and Israel were once close allies, but their relationship has deteriorated over the past two decades, particularly under Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. His vocal opposition to Israeli policies toward the Palestinians, along with Turkey’s support for Hamas, has fueled tensions.

Geopolitical Implications

Following the conflict in Gaza, Turkey took strong action against Israel, including cutting trade ties and joining South Africa’s genocide case against Israel at the UN International Court of Justice. Turkish officials are also increasingly concerned that Israel is backing Kurdish, Druze, and Alawite autonomy movements within Syria.

Erdogan recently issued a warning, stating that any attempts to exploit ethnic or religious divisions in Syria would not succeed. His comments came in the wake of sectarian violence, where pro-Assad groups attacked government security forces, prompting retaliation from factions aligned with Syria’s new leadership, allegedly backed by Turkey. Hundreds of civilians were reported killed in the clashes.

Israel’s response has been equally strong, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sharren Haskel condemning what she described as “ethnic cleansing” by Islamist groups now in power in Damascus. She accused Turkey of supporting jihadist forces and stressed Israel’s commitment to countering any security threats emerging from Syria.

Amid growing tensions, Israel has deepened its involvement in Syria, pledging support and economic assistance to the Druze community. Israeli officials argue that their aid efforts in southern Syria are humanitarian in nature, while critics accuse them of using the situation to justify intervention.

Although Syria’s new president initially adopted a cautious stance toward Israel, his rhetoric has shifted, now calling Israeli actions a threat to regional security. With both Turkey and Israel actively maneuvering to secure their interests, experts warn that miscalculations could lead to direct confrontation.

Analysts suggest that Israel and Turkey could benefit from diplomatic engagement, particularly given Turkey’s influence over Syria’s leadership. Without efforts to de-escalate, Syria may soon become the focal point of yet another regional conflict.