A report indicates that Israel’s discussions about extending the conflict into Lebanon

A recent intelligence assessment from the United States has indicated that Israel might face challenges in achieving success in a war against Hezbollah, in the midst of ongoing conflicts in Gaza, as reported by the Washington Post.

The U.S. administration, under President Joe Biden, has taken proactive steps to prevent a full-scale war between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. This initiative is part of a broader strategy to maintain stability in the region.

Despite Israel’s stance against the regular exchanges of fire with Hezbollah along their shared border, and its consideration of a significant military operation in Lebanon, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant has expressed a preference for a diplomatic resolution. However, he also acknowledged that military action could become necessary.

The U.S. is particularly concerned that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view an expanded conflict in Lebanon as essential for his political survival, especially given the domestic criticism over the handling of Hamas’ attack on October 7.

Private warnings from the U.S. administration to Israel have advised against a significant escalation in Lebanon. A secret assessment by the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) suggests that Israel’s military might be overstretched due to the conflict in Gaza, making success in Lebanon more challenging.

Hezbollah, known for its well-trained fighters and substantial missile and rocket arsenal, is reportedly looking to avoid a major escalation. The group’s leader, Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah, has indicated a desire to avoid a broader war, despite vowing a response to Israeli aggression.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken is scheduled to visit Israel to discuss measures to prevent escalation. His spokesman, Matt Miller, emphasized the global interest in containing the conflict to Gaza.

The possibility of Israel launching a preemptive strike on Hezbollah has been a topic of discussion among Israeli officials, with the U.S. strongly opposing such a move due to the potential involvement of Iran and other proxy forces, which could necessitate a U.S. military response.

U.S. officials are apprehensive that a full-scale conflict between Israel and Lebanon could surpass the devastation of the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war, given Hezbollah’s larger arsenal of advanced weaponry.

Amid these tensions, Hezbollah’s recent launch of approximately 62 rockets into Israel in retaliation for the assassination of senior Hamas leader Saleh Arouri has heightened the threat of a wider conflict.

Israeli officials have been cautious about Hezbollah’s involvement in the Hamas incursion, and there were fears that the government might miss signs of another violent assault. This concern influenced Biden’s decision to visit Tel Aviv shortly after the Hamas attack.

The White House and State Department officials acknowledge the persistent risk of Israel initiating an attack on Hezbollah, with recent developments, including the temporary withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza, intensifying these concerns.

Biden’s special envoy Amos Hochstein was sent to Israel to work on an agreement to reduce tensions at the Lebanese-Israeli border. The goal is to develop a process for negotiating land demarcation to stabilize the situation.

Discussions are underway between U.S. and French officials and the Lebanese government regarding a proposal for Lebanese government control over a portion of the Lebanon-Israel border, a move aimed at addressing Israeli concerns.

While the White House has not detailed this plan, U.S. officials emphasize the importance of diplomatic solutions for the peace and security of Israeli and Lebanese citizens.

The administration acknowledges that Hezbollah is unlikely to agree to a border deal amid the ongoing Israeli military campaign in Gaza. Within the U.S. administration, views differ on Netanyahu’s willingness to negotiate a resolution with Hezbollah, with some suggesting that his political survival may depend on the broader conflict.