Video: Iran and Allies Plan Joint, Limited Retaliation Against Israel

Following recent high-profile killings of Hamas and Hezbollah leaders, Iran and its allied groups are reportedly strategizing a retaliation that deters Israel while avoiding a full-scale war, according to sources and experts. Discussions in Tehran, which involved representatives from the “axis of resistance” — a coalition of Iran-supported groups opposing Israel — focused on how to respond to these assassinations.

A confidential informant described two main strategies under consideration: a unified immediate response from all allies or a sequential response by each group. Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has promised severe retribution for the death of Hamas’s Ismail Haniyeh, a sentiment echoed by Hezbollah’s leader during a funeral for Fouad Shukur, their senior commander killed earlier.

Amal Saad, a Hezbollah scholar at Cardiff University, predicts a coordinated military response among Iran and its regional partners, which include Lebanese Hezbollah, Palestinian factions Hamas and Islamic Jihad, Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and Iraq’s Hashed al-Shaabi force.

An Iraqi group leader indicated that Iran would spearhead the initial military action, targeting military sites with the support of Iraqi, Yemeni, and Syrian factions, followed by Hezbollah’s response. This alliance has also targeted U.S. forces and claims to have attacked Israel with drones and rockets.

Hezbollah might target civilian areas in retaliation for recent civilian casualties in Beirut, claimed by Israel. However, the expected response from Iran and its allies aims to deter further Israeli actions without escalating into broader conflict, aligning with Iran and Hezbollah’s strategic goal of avoiding a direct confrontation that could draw in the United States.

The White House has acknowledged the increase in regional tensions but noted no immediate signs of escalation. Meanwhile, Iranian analysts anticipate a more substantial response than previous engagements, although they do not foresee a widespread, uncontrollable war. Both Tehran and Hezbollah prioritize their regime’s survival, focusing on pressuring Israel without jeopardizing their existence.