Hezbollah Isn’t Hamas: Can Israel Handle Another Full-Scale War?

After nearly a year of conflict in Gaza, Israel has intensified its military operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon, launching covert strikes on communication devices and a severe bombing campaign that resulted in numerous casualties. This escalation comes amid ongoing tension with Hamas, which has already stretched Israel’s military resources thin, evidenced by shortages and mounting economic and public pressure for peace and resolution of hostage situations.

The possibility of an Israeli ground invasion into Lebanon remains uncertain, raising questions about Israel’s capacity to manage another major conflict. The hostility between Israel and Hezbollah has escalated since October 8, the day after a deadly attack by Hamas on Israel, with Hezbollah launching attacks in solidarity with Gaza.

Recent actions by Israel in Lebanon have significantly escalated tensions, including a notable operation where devices used by Hezbollah were remotely detonated, causing widespread injuries. This was followed by increased exchanges of fire, which if escalated further, could plunge Israel into a more challenging conflict with Hezbollah, a group considered more formidable than Hamas.

Hezbollah, described as a “state within a state” by Yoel Guzansky of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), possesses advanced military capabilities and strategic ties throughout the Middle East, including Iran, Iraq, and Yemen. Despite improvements in Israeli military technology like the Iron Dome, Hezbollah’s arsenal, including a large number of long-range ballistic missiles, poses a significant threat.

Recent strikes by Hezbollah have reached deeper into Israeli territory than before, signaling an escalation in their capabilities. This ongoing conflict has led to significant displacement and casualties on both sides, highlighting the severe implications of this widening confrontation.

Israel faces multiple challenges in a potential broader conflict with Hezbollah:
1. A more formidable opponent: Hezbollah’s sophisticated weaponry and extensive network across the Middle East present a substantial challenge.
2. Stretched military resources: Israel’s military is already taxed by the ongoing conflict with Hamas, and extending to another front could overstretch its capabilities.
3. Economic decline: The war’s impact on Israel’s economy has been severe, with significant contractions and increased military expenditures that strain financial resources.
4. Political and legitimacy issues: Internationally and domestically, there is a crisis of legitimacy and support concerning Israel’s aggressive military strategies, especially if a new front opens against Hezbollah.

These factors collectively complicate Israel’s strategic decisions as it navigates the complexities of simultaneous conflicts on multiple fronts.