With Hamas holding firm in Gaza, Israel faces tough choices

Despite significant setbacks, Hamas continues to resist after seven brutal months of war with Israel, regrouping in heavily impacted areas of northern Gaza and resuming rocket attacks on nearby Israeli communities.

Initially, Israel made tactical advances against Hamas following a devastating aerial bombardment that paved the way for ground troops. However, those early gains have turned into a protracted struggle against an adaptable insurgency, leading many Israelis to draw parallels with U.S. wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, feeling their military faces only difficult options.

This backdrop has led to a recent dispute within Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s War Cabinet, with Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and political rival Benny Gantz pushing for detailed postwar plans. Both retired generals supported Israel’s retaliation for Hamas’ October 7 attack, which included a massive bombing campaign, ground operations that destroyed neighborhoods, and border restrictions that, according to the U.N.’s World Food Program, have pushed parts of Gaza into famine.

However, Gallant and Gantz now fear a prolonged, costly re-occupation of Gaza, from which Israel withdrew in 2005. They are also against a withdrawal that would leave Hamas in control or lead to a Palestinian state. Instead, they have suggested alternatives that many Israelis view as unrealistic. Meanwhile, Hamas has proposed its own postwar plan.

### Possible Endings to the Conflict

**Full-Scale Military Occupation**
Netanyahu has vowed a “total victory” to remove Hamas from power, dismantle its military capabilities, and secure the return of hostages taken during the initial attack. He claims victory could come within weeks with a full-scale invasion of Rafah, the last Hamas stronghold. However, experts like retired Israeli general Amir Avivi argue that Israel would need to maintain control to prevent Hamas from regrouping, a process he describes as generational. Far-right members of Netanyahu’s coalition advocate for permanent occupation, but most Israelis oppose this due to the immense costs and responsibilities it entails.

**Lighter Occupation with ‘Unicorns’**
Netanyahu has suggested maintaining security control over Gaza while delegating civilian administration to local Palestinians not affiliated with Hamas or the Palestinian Authority. He envisions support from Arab and other countries for governance and rebuilding. However, no Palestinians have volunteered to cooperate with the Israeli military, and Arab states have rejected this scenario.

**A Grand Bargain**
Arab states support a U.S. proposal for a reformed Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza, with assistance from Arab and Muslim nations, including Saudi Arabia, which would normalize relations with Israel in exchange for a U.S. defense pact and help in building a civilian nuclear program. This plan hinges on Israel committing to a path to Palestinian statehood, which Netanyahu and his allies oppose.

**A Deal with Hamas**
Hamas has proposed a phased agreement involving the release of hostages in exchange for Palestinian prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, a lengthy cease-fire, and reconstruction efforts. This plan would likely leave Hamas in control of Gaza and allow it to rebuild its military. Thousands of Israeli protesters have called for such a deal to secure the release of hostages, despite Netanyahu’s resistance due to potential political fallout.

Ultimately, Israel may need to adopt Hamas’ concept of a “hudna”—a prolonged period of strategic calm. This would allow Israel to strengthen its position before possibly engaging in future conflicts.

Milshtein suggests that a “hudna” could provide Israel with a period of calm to regroup and prepare for the next inevitable round of fighting.