France on Edge as Uncertain Vote Looms

France’s tense election campaign paused on Saturday, just a day before the final vote, but concerns about the country’s future persisted even before the polls opened.

This traditional day of reflection before Sunday’s runoff won’t alleviate fears of potential deadlock and stagnation in France, a key global power and EU pillar.

Final opinion polls on Friday indicated that Marine Le Pen’s far-right National Rally (RN) is unlikely to secure an outright majority in the National Assembly.

President Emmanuel Macron’s strategy of calling snap elections to force a decision between his centrist path and the far-left and far-right extremes has not been successful.

As a result, he faces the remaining three years of his presidency without a clear ruling majority, with Prime Minister Gabriel Attal possibly managing a caretaker government.

Pollsters Ipsos and Ifop suggest that the anti-immigrant, euroskeptic RN could win between 170 and 210 seats in the National Assembly, far short of the 289 needed for an absolute majority.

The Ipsos Talan poll for Le Monde, Radio France, and France Televisions predicts the RN will just edge out the left-wing New Popular Front, which could secure between 145 and 175 seats.

Both far-right and left-wing groups are predicted to significantly outpace Macron’s centrist allies, who are expected to win between 118 and 148 seats, down from 250 in the outgoing parliament.

This means French voters might go to bed on Sunday night uncertain about who will form and lead the government, or whether Attal will continue in a weakened role.

Le Pen remains confident in achieving an absolute majority, which would compel Macron to appoint her 28-year-old deputy, Jordan Bardella, as prime minister.

“Either the RN wins an absolute majority and I can, from Sunday, embark on my project to rebuild … or the country is blocked,” Bardella stated on Thursday.

Attal has promised to stay on “as long as necessary” in a caretaker role, while Macron’s office explores options to sustain some form of government.

Macron is set to remain in office until presidential and legislative elections in April 2027, but he now faces the challenge of possibly sharing power with political opponents.

The prospect of France forming its first far-right government since World War II has alarmed its European allies, who are already puzzled by Macron’s risky snap election decision.

Even if the RN falls short, as predicted, France will navigate uncharted political waters as it prepares to host the Olympic Games.

In a bid to counter the far-right’s rise seen in the first round of voting on June 30, centrists and left-wing parties have formed second-round alliances.

Le Pen has condemned these alliances as an attempt to “steal victory” against the will of the people by creating what she calls a “single party” to protect the political elite.

However, it’s uncertain how many voters will turn out on Sunday to support candidates who advanced due to these pacts.

With the outcome so uncertain, tensions are mounting. Over 50 candidates and campaign activists have been physically attacked during this short four-week campaign.

To prevent any trouble, about 30,000 police officers will be deployed this weekend.

French stocks remained stable on Friday, with investors expecting the far-right to fail to win an absolute majority. However, analysts predict turbulence if the RN attempts to implement its expensive economic program, which includes reversing Macron’s pension reforms.