Erdogan’s Next Move After Local Election Setback?

The recent local elections in Turkey have sparked discussions about the potential for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his Justice and Development Party (AKP) to reconsider some of their more divisive policies. This comes after the opposition made significant gains, suggesting a shift in the political landscape. The center-left Republican People’s Party (CHP) not only retained control of Istanbul and Ankara but also expanded its influence into traditionally conservative regions.

In light of these developments, experts anticipate Erdogan’s government might lean towards a more conciliatory approach, both internationally with NATO allies and domestically. Erdogan, acknowledging the electoral setback, committed to analyzing the results and engaging in self-reflection.

While some do not expect Erdogan to drastically alter his Islamist conservative stance, a more moderated approach might be in the offing. This could include reevaluating planned constitutional amendments focused on “family values,” which have sparked controversy, especially among the LGBTQ+ community.

The opposition’s victory in 35 of Turkey’s 81 provinces, including its most populous cities, marks a significant moment for Erdogan, who has not previously faced such a challenge in his two decades of leadership. The high voter turnout, albeit lower than last year’s national elections, suggests a portion of AKP’s base did not show up to vote, signaling discontent.

Economically, Turkey is grappling with a cost-of-living crisis, with inflation at a staggering 67%. Erdogan’s unorthodox economic policies, which include lowering interest rates to combat inflation, have been criticized for exacerbating the country’s financial woes. Despite his unchanged popularity in last year’s national elections, this local election indicates voters are seeking change.

The political dynamics have also shifted, with the pro-Kurdish Equality and Democracy Party making gains despite facing governmental repression. The election showcased the importance of leadership over party affiliation or ideology, with CHP’s new leadership and strong candidates like Ekrem Imamoglu and Mansur Yavas outperforming their AKP counterparts.

On the streets of Istanbul, reactions to the election results varied. Some celebrated the opposition’s success as a positive change for Turkey, while others expressed disappointment, attributing the outcome to ingratitude towards Erdogan’s leadership during the pandemic and post-earthquake rebuilding efforts.

This electoral outcome sets the stage for a potentially different political climate in Turkey, with the possibility of policy shifts and a more conciliatory approach from Erdogan’s administration.